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2015 Sasquatch #5 Results

For the second year in a row the penultimate edition of the Sasquatch Dash series was a pursuit start event.  Basically we tried to predict everyone's finish time based on their results in previous races and then started everyone with the hope everyone would finish at the same time giving everyone a shot at the win.

So how did it work out?  Let's see.

First up are my predictions.  These are compiled by looking at the results for the year and doing correlations between races.  Thus even if you didn't run the first race we could make a guess what you would finish that course in.  If you ran multiple races there were multiple predictions to choose from.  In this case, right or wrong, I chose the best prediction.

So as you can see we ranged from 57 minutes down to 33 minutes.  Using this list we calculated the starting gaps and headed over to the overlook where Dorinda got us started.  4:06 later Starr took off.  And so on until 23:52 later Greg took off in search of everyone.

Now ideally 57:17 after Dorinda started there would be a mass sprint for the finish.  It didn't quite turn out that way.

As you can see, Steve Meyer rolled in at 54:40 and we had folks finishing at 1:02:41 so a bit of a spread from 57:17.  This will be based on performance versus prediction.

As you can see Steve substantially bettered his prediction, we had a handful pretty close, and then a number that missed it by a fair bit to a lot.

A few editorial comments.  A few of our normal top performers had some challenges coming in.  One donated blood this week and another is trying to nurse an injury.  Then Shawn was our mandatory "we must have at least one person off course at each race" quota.  I'm pretty sure we've never had everyone stay on course, I'm just glad I stayed on course this time.  It's pretty sad when the guy who sets the course gets lost (happened twice this year).  So those three things don't help the spread much.  Without those I think we would have been quite a bit tighter, though an 8 minute spread isn't so bad.

So here is how the scoring broke down.

On the ladies side we actually ended up with what you would expect from a normal race as far as finish order goes.  It was pretty close to mixing things up.

Things definitely got a little more mixed up on the guys side.  Steve Meyer came out the big winner, Steve Clark, myself, and Cory probably hit roughly our normal scoring place, but the normal big winners definitely got moved down a ways.

I haven't mentioned Dan yet.  He was the fly in this pursuit format ointment.  The problem was he hadn't run a Sasqutch Dash yet this year.  The way that is supposed to work is he is forced to guess where he wants to start and can't finish any better than the number of people who start with or behind him.  So despite being the second person to the finish line, he started with Steve Meyer and had 7 guys with or behind him, thus relegating him to 7th place.  Is it a perfect format?  No, but it was the best I could figure to make sure we weren't limited to people who had raced before.

With only the finale remaining, here is how the series race is breaking down.  On the ladies side, Tammi is dominating.  Her lead isn't insurmountable however.  Because the final race is worth double points she does have to show up to defend her title.  If she can't make it, both Starr and Dorinda are within striking distance.

A quick note about why the Total and Final columns are different.  Remember, this is a best 4 scores series.  So Dorinda has perfect attendance and thus her lowest score gets thrown out which happens to be a 5 point race.  Both Starr and Tammi are at 4 races so they will potentially throw something out at the finale.

On the men's side, it continues to be a tight battle at the top and is definitely coming down to the finale.  But here is the major intrigue, if Greg finishes first, and Alex second, they will be tied.  Based on what results get thrown out and the double points they will each be at 95.  It is going to be very interesting.

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